Recency bias意思

Recency bias, also known as the recency effect, is a cognitive bias where people place too much importance on recent events or experiences when making judgments or predictions. This bias leads individuals to assume that trends of the recent past will continue into the future, giving undue weight to the most recent information.

For example, if an investor has experienced a period of rising stock prices, they may be more likely to believe that the market will continue to rise in the future, even if there is no evidence to support this belief. Similarly, a sports fan might believe that a team is "on a roll" and will continue to win games because they have won their last few matches.

Recency bias can also affect how people remember past events. For instance, people might remember the last few times they had a particular experience (e.g., a bad meal at a restaurant) more vividly than earlier, more positive experiences, leading them to have a negative overall impression of the restaurant.

This bias can have a significant impact on decision-making, as it can lead people to overlook important information and make decisions based on limited and potentially misleading data. To avoid recency bias, it is important to consider a wide range of information and to look at the big picture rather than focusing too much on recent events or experiences.